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	<title>Center for Applied Rationality</title>
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	<link>http://appliedrationality.org</link>
	<description>Teaching the Science of Decision-Making</description>
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		<title>Do You Ask for Examples?</title>
		<link>http://appliedrationality.org/2013/05/16/do-you-ask-for-examples/</link>
		<comments>http://appliedrationality.org/2013/05/16/do-you-ask-for-examples/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 May 2013 18:22:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Leah Libresco</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Rationality Checklist]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://appliedrationality.org/?p=1809</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The last question we asked our newsletter subscribers in our first installment of the Rationality Checklist was about how frequently they asked for examples. When somebody says something that isn&#8217;t quite clear enough for me to visualize, I notice this and ask for examples. (Example: A mathematics student said they were studying &#8220;stacks&#8221;. I asked [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The last question we asked <a href="http://appliedrationality.org/newsletter-popup/">our newsletter subscribers</a> in our first installment of the <a href="http://appliedrationality.org/checklist/">Rationality Checklist</a> was about how frequently they asked for examples.</p>
<blockquote><p>When somebody says something that isn&#8217;t quite clear enough for me to visualize, I notice this and ask for examples. (Example: A mathematics student said they were studying &#8220;stacks&#8221;. I asked for an example of a stack. They said that the integers could form a stack. I asked for an example of something that was not a stack.)</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Here&#8217;s what our survey takers reported:</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://appliedrationality.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/chklist-wk1-examples.jpg"><img class="aligncenter  wp-image-1810" alt="chklist wk1 examples" src="http://appliedrationality.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/chklist-wk1-examples.jpg" width="536" height="454" /></a></p>
<p>Ironically, when we asked you to give examples of how you used the skills on our Rationality Checklist, we got the <em>fewest</em> examples for the skill of asking for examples.  So, here&#8217;s one from me:</p>
<blockquote><p>When I was talking to a friend about college classes that had made a big impact on me, I told him that taking Linear Algebra Theory had really improved my writing.  He was confused, so he asked me for an example, and I explained that working through proofs each week and spending a couple hours mentally moving matrices had made it a lot easier to fall into the same mental pattern when writing essays and <em>move</em> arguments around in the paper.  Before, it had been harder to keep the entire structure of a writing assignment in my head at once.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Sometimes, it can be hard to find a way to ask for examples without breaking the flow of a conversation, or you might not be in direct dialogue with a speaker (e.g. when reading a book or listening to a lecture).  Instead, you can still generate private examples to make sure you&#8217;ve got a concrete understanding of what the other person is saying.  As <a href="http://lesswrong.com/lw/bc3/sotw_be_specific/">Richard Feynmann explains it</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>I had a scheme, which I still use today when somebody is explaining something that I&#8217;m trying to understand: I keep making up examples. For instance, the mathematicians would come in with a terrific theorem, and they&#8217;re all excited. As they&#8217;re telling me the conditions of the theorem, I construct something which fits all the conditions. You know, you have a set (one ball) &#8211; disjoint (two halls). Then the balls turn colors, grow hairs, or whatever, in my head as they put more conditions on. Finally they state the theorem, which is some dumb thing about the ball which isn&#8217;t true for my hairy green ball thing, so I say, &#8220;False!&#8221;</p>
</blockquote>
<p>It&#8217;s also really valuable to <a href="http://lesswrong.com/lw/iw/positive_bias_look_into_the_dark/">come up with negative examples</a>.  We&#8217;re all vulnerable to the <a href="http://lesswrong.com/lw/ke/illusion_of_transparency_why_no_one_understands/">illusion of transparency</a>, where we assume other people must understand everything we&#8217;ve left unspoken.  If you just focus on matching your example to what the other person has said explicitly, you may be leaving out other important factors.  </p>
<p>Imagine your friend asked you to set her up on a blind date and gave you a few examples of girls she found attractive (mostly short-haired, stocky girls).  You kept trying to check that you had the right idea by giving examples that matched hers as closely as possible, but you might have made more progress by giving a few negative examples (&#8220;So, you wouldn&#8217;t be into Blake Lively, right?&#8221;) to make sure you weren&#8217;t only talking about a subset of your friend&#8217;s preferences or catching on to the wrong variable (&#8220;No, I meant I like girls who are into martial arts!  I guess that&#8217;s just what the girls in <em>my</em> class look like&#8221;).</p>
<p>Asking for examples helps you have more accurate beliefs about the world, or at least to catch on quicker when you&#8217;ve made a mistake.</p>
<p><em>Check out all the results and stories from out Rationality Checklist survey by browsing the <a href="http://appliedrationality.org/category/rationality-checklist/">‘Rationality Checklist’ category</a>.</em></p>
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		<title>How do you react to bad news?</title>
		<link>http://appliedrationality.org/2013/05/10/how-do-you-react-to-bad-news/</link>
		<comments>http://appliedrationality.org/2013/05/10/how-do-you-react-to-bad-news/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 May 2013 15:33:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Leah Libresco</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Rationality Checklist]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://appliedrationality.org/?p=1772</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In the last installment of our Rationality Checklist survey results, we talked about thoughts you try to not to think about. The next question was about one (unfortunately common) subtype of ideas we try to avoid. It takes training to be able to reliably dodge a punch, but most of us have fairly good reflexes [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In the last installment of our Rationality Checklist survey results, we talked about <a href="http://appliedrationality.org/2013/05/08/when-do-you-notice-yourself-flinching-away-from-thoughts/">thoughts you try to not to think about</a>.  The next question was about one (unfortunately common) subtype of ideas we try to avoid.</p>
<p>It takes training to be able to reliably dodge a punch, but most of us have fairly good reflexes when it comes to flinching away from bad news. Maybe you anticipate it coming, and make such a sad face, the person talking to you doesn&#8217;t want to go on. Maybe you&#8217;re skilled at redirecting a conversation. Maybe you avoid certain sources of information (like your stock tracking website).</p>
<p>Whatever your strategy, you&#8217;re cutting yourself off from information. Acknowledging something bad doesn&#8217;t make it worse; it gives you the information you need to take action. But it&#8217;s hard to overcome a reflex; it takes deliberate, conscious effort. So, we asked you how often you work on welcoming bad news.</p>
<blockquote><p>I consciously attempt to welcome bad news, or at least not push it away. (Example: At a brainstorming session for future Singularity Summits, one issue raised was that we hadn&#8217;t really been asking for money at previous ones. My brain was offering resistance, so I applied the &#8220;bad news is good news&#8221; pattern to rephrase this as, &#8220;This point doesn&#8217;t change the fixed amount of money we raised in past years, so it is good news because it implies that we can fix the strategy and do better next year.&#8221;)</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Our newsletter subscribers responded:</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://appliedrationality.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/chklist-wk1-bad-news.jpg"><img class="aligncenter  wp-image-1773" alt="chklist wk1 bad news" src="http://appliedrationality.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/chklist-wk1-bad-news.jpg" width="565" height="419" /></a></p>
<p>One person shared a story about <em>almost</em> flinching away from a chance to improve, since it meant acknowledging ze hadn&#8217;t been perfect in the past:</p>
<blockquote><p>Last month, I realized that there was a better way to run my secular alliance meetings. This made me feel badly, thinking I&#8217;d been doing a poor job as president. But I reminded myself that the club had been successful, and this quarter I could make it even more so.&#8221;</p>
</blockquote>
<p>One respondent, after an initial dodge, managed to bring zer attention back to the new information:</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;I recall only a few weeks back when I was queried on an illogical error in on a design diagram and immediately I went negative and diverted the problem to other less likely possibilities. However, I did go back and check with more deliberate exploration shortly afterwards and had to back track on my initial response. The better approach would have been immediately to not go negative (error mode) response and taken the advice that yes I might have made a mistake, let me confirm this and will get back to you.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Welcoming bad news as data can also help you have better, more honest relationships with friends and coworkers. If you thank people for information, even if it&#8217;s not the data you hoped for, you won&#8217;t be training your friends to present you with a skewed picture of the world. That doesn&#8217;t mean you have to cover up your instinctive disappointment, or pretend it isn&#8217;t there. Just remember that being upset about the way the world <em>is</em> is different from being upset about <em>knowing</em> that fact. And you need to <em>know</em> to be able to make a change.</p>
<p><em>Check out all the results and stories from out Rationality Checklist survey by browsing the <a href="http://appliedrationality.org/category/rationality-checklist/">‘Rationality Checklist’ category</a>.</em></p>
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		<title>When do you notice yourself flinching away from thoughts?</title>
		<link>http://appliedrationality.org/2013/05/08/when-do-you-notice-yourself-flinching-away-from-thoughts/</link>
		<comments>http://appliedrationality.org/2013/05/08/when-do-you-notice-yourself-flinching-away-from-thoughts/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 May 2013 19:11:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Leah Libresco</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Rationality Checklist]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://appliedrationality.org/?p=1767</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This is the last of three habits of noticing that we asked you about on the Rationality Checklist survey. we wanted to know if you could spot yourself bouncing away from a thought, flinching away from dwelling on it or putting it into words. It&#8217;s a good warning sign you might be about to slip [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is the last of three habits of <em>noticing</em> that we asked you about on <a href="http://appliedrationality.org/checklist/">the Rationality Checklist</a> survey.  we wanted to know if you could spot yourself bouncing away from a thought, flinching away from dwelling on it or putting it into words.  It&#8217;s a good warning sign you might be about to slip into <a href="http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Motivated_cognition">motivated cognition</a>.  You may want to pause to <a href="http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Litany_of_Gendlin">remember you&#8217;d rather know the truth</a> and <a href="http://lesswrong.com/lw/o4/leave_a_line_of_retreat/">identify a line of retreat</a>.</p>
<blockquote><p>I notice my mind flinching away from a thought; and when I notice, I flag that area as requiring more deliberate exploration. (Example: I have a failure mode where, when I feel socially uncomfortable, I try to make others feel mistaken so that I will feel less vulnerable. Putting this thought into words required repeated conscious effort, as my mind kept wanting to just drop the subject.)</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Before you can start training yourself to intervene and reason clearly, you need to be able to notice that your thinking is clouded.  Here&#8217;s how often our survey respondents noticed this happening to them:</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://appliedrationality.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/chklist-wk1-ugh-field.jpg"><img class="aligncenter  wp-image-1769" alt="chklist wk1 ugh field" src="http://appliedrationality.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/chklist-wk1-ugh-field.jpg" width="635" height="459" /></a></p>
<p>Readers shared some stories of noticing thoughts they&#8217;d rather not think and what they did next:</p>
<blockquote><p>When writing up what I would recommend for others to do for time management I caught myself shying away from some areas of discussion. These where the areas where I was deficient and needed more work. Instead of shying away I need to celebrate them as valuable discoveries.</p>
</blockquote>
<blockquote><p>I considered how admirable historical figures were who promoted harshly criticized, but later vindicated, social beliefs (pro-women&#8217;s rights, anti-slavery).</p>
<p>I then considered what the best modern day analog is, and came up with animal rights, which I flinched away from, since I am not an active vegetarian, nor have I spent much time thinking of the issue. I have since logged this as a very likely inconsistency in my beliefs and actions, and worth much further thought.&#8221;</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Colloquially at CFAR, we like to say that the thoughts that we flinch away from are surrounded by <a href="http://lesswrong.com/lw/21b/ugh_fields/">Ugh Fields</a>.  Get too close to a painful thought, and you&#8217;ll be in distress and have a strong disincentive for coming back to the idea or trying to resolve it.  Like our readers, you need a little breathing room to be able to look at the thought that&#8217;s repelling you, so you can decide what to do about it.  </p>
<p>At <a href="http://appliedrationality.org/workshops/">our workshops</a> we teach a couple different classes that can help you stride boldly through an ugh field to examine the noxious-seeming concept at the center.  Our class on Againstness helps you deliberately engage your <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parasympathetic_nervous_system">parasympathetic nervous system</a>, so you can examine the idea from a place of calm, cool analysis, not the sympathetic fight/flight/freeze response your fear may have triggered.  Our Aversion Factoring class helps you figure out what you&#8217;re frightened of and gives you some tools to adjust your response.  You may be right to be nervous, but still have a <em>disproportionate</em> flinch that you&#8217;d like to turn down.</p>
<p><em>Check out all the results and stories from out Rationality Checklist survey by browsing the <a href="http://appliedrationality.org/category/rationality-checklist/">‘Rationality Checklist’ category</a></em></p>
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		<title>How to Be Happy</title>
		<link>http://appliedrationality.org/2013/05/06/how-to-be-happy/</link>
		<comments>http://appliedrationality.org/2013/05/06/how-to-be-happy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 May 2013 15:59:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Luke</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://appliedrationality.org/?p=1753</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[cross-posted at Less Wrong] One day a coworker said to me, &#8220;Luke! You&#8217;re, like, the happiest person I know! How come you&#8217;re so happy all the time?&#8221; It was probably a rhetorical question, but I had a very long answer to give. See, I was unhappy for most of my life,1 and even considered suicide [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><small>[cross-posted at <a href="http://lesswrong.com/lw/4su/how_to_be_happy/">Less Wrong</a>]</small></p>
<p>One day a coworker said to me, &#8220;Luke! You&#8217;re, like, the happiest person I know! How come you&#8217;re so happy all the time?&#8221;</p>
<p>It was probably a rhetorical question, but I had a very long answer to give. See, I was <em>un</em>happy for most of my life,<sup>1</sup> and even considered suicide a few times. Then I spent two years studying the science of happiness. Now, happiness is my natural state. I can&#8217;t remember the last time I felt unhappy for longer than 20 minutes.</p>
<p>That kind of change won&#8217;t happen for everyone, or even most people (<a href = "http://lesswrong.com/lw/9v/beware_of_otheroptimizing/">beware of other-optimizing</a>), but it&#8217;s worth a shot! </p>
<p>We all want to be happy, and happiness is useful for other things, too.<sup>2</sup> For example, happiness improves physical health,<sup>3</sup> improves creativity,<sup>4</sup> and even enables you to make better decisions.<sup>5</sup> (It&#8217;s harder to be rational when you&#8217;re unhappy.<sup>6</sup>) So, let&#8217;s review <b>the science of happiness</b>.</p>
<p><span id="more-1753"></span></p>
<p><b>The correlates of happiness</b></p>
<p>Previously, I wrote <a href = "http://lesswrong.com/lw/3nn/scientific_selfhelp_the_state_of_our_knowledge/">a review of the current state of scientific self-help research</a>, and I noted that there is an abundance of research on factors that correlate with <em>subjective well-being</em> (individuals&#8217; own assessments of their happiness and life satisfaction).</p>
<p>Factors that <em>don&#8217;t correlate</em> much with happiness include: age,<sup>7</sup> gender,<sup>8</sup> parenthood,<sup>9</sup> intelligence,<sup>10</sup> physical attractiveness,<sup>11</sup> and money<sup>12</sup> (as long as you&#8217;re above the poverty line). Factors that <em>correlate moderately</em> with happiness include: health,<sup>13</sup> social activity,<sup>14</sup> and religiosity.<sup>15</sup> Factors that <em>correlate strongly</em> with happiness include: genetics,<sup>16</sup> love and relationship satisfaction,<sup>17</sup> and work satisfaction.<sup>18</sup><br />
But correlation is not enough. We want to know what <em>causes</em> happiness. And that is a trickier thing to measure. But we do know a <em>few</em> things.</p>
<p><b>Happiness, personality, and skills<b></p>
<p>Genes account for about 50% of the variance in happiness.<sup>19</sup> Even lottery winners and newly-made quadriplegics do not see as much of a change in happiness as you would expect.<sup>20</sup> Presumably, genes shape your happiness by shaping your personality, which is known to be quite heritable.<sup>21</sup></p>
<p>So which personality traits tend to correlate most with happiness? Extroversion is among the best predictors of happiness,<sup>22</sup> as are conscientiousness, agreeableness, self-esteem, and optimism.<sup>23</sup></p>
<p>What if you don&#8217;t have those traits? The first thing to say is that you might be capable of them without knowing it. Introversion, for example, can be exacerbated by <em>a lack of social skills</em>. If you decide to <a href = "http://www.amazon.com/Social-Skills-Picture-School-Beyond/dp/1932565353/">learn</a> and <a href = "http://reports.toastmasters.org/findaclub/">practice</a> social skills, you might find that you are more extroverted than you thought! (That&#8217;s what happened to me.) The same goes for <a href = "http://www.amazon.com/dp/055380491X/">conscientiousness</a>, <a href = "http://www.amazon.com/dp/1439167346/">agreeableness</a>, <a href = "http://www.psychologicalselfhelp.org/Chapter14/chap14_5.html">self-esteem</a>, and <a href = "http://lesswrong.com/lw/3w3/how_to_beat_procrastination/#optimism">optimism</a> &#8211; these are only partly linked to personality. They are to some extent learnable skills, and learning these skills (or even &#8220;acting as if&#8221;) can increase happiness.<sup>24</sup></p>
<p>The second thing to say is that lacking some of these traits does not, of course, doom you to unhappiness.</p>
<p><b>Happiness is subjective and relative</b></p>
<p>Happiness is not determined by objective factors, but by how you <em>feel</em> about them.<sup>25</sup></p>
<p>Happiness is also relative<sup>26</sup>: you&#8217;ll probably be happier making $25,000/year in Costa Rica (where your neighbors are making $13,000/year) than you will be making $80,000/year in Beverly Hills (where your neighbors are making $130,000/year).</p>
<p>Happiness is relative in another sense, too: it is relative to your <em>expectations</em>.<sup>27</sup> We are quite poor at predicting the strength of our emotional reactions to future events. We overestimate the misery we will experience after a romantic breakup, failure to get a promotion, or even contracting an illness. We also overestimate the <em>pleasure</em> we will get from buying a nice car, getting a promotion, or moving to a lovely coastal city. So: lower your expectations about the pleasure you&#8217;ll get from such expenditures.</p>
<p><b>Flow and mindfulness</b></p>
<p>You may have heard of the famous studies<sup>28</sup> showing that people are happiest when they are in a state of &#8220;<a href = "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flow_(psychology)">flow</a>.&#8221; Flow is the state you&#8217;re in when you are fully engaged in a task that is interesting, challenging, and intrinsically rewarding to you. This is the experience of &#8220;losing yourself in the moment&#8221; or, as sports players say, &#8220;being in the zone.&#8221;</p>
<p>Finding flow has largely to do with performing tasks that match your skill level. When a task is far beyond your skill level, you will feel defeated. When a task is too easy, you&#8217;ll be bored. Only when a task is challenging but achievable will you feel good about doing it. I&#8217;m reminded of the state troopers in <a href = "http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-9D2qUHN-E"></em>Super Troopers</em></a>, who devised strange games and challenges to make their boring jobs passable. Myrtle Young made her boring job at a potato chip factory more interesting and challenging by looking for potato chips that resembled celebrities, and pulling them off the conveyor belts for her collection.</p>
<p>If you&#8217;re struggling with negative thoughts, achieving flow is probably the best medicine. Contrary to popular wisdom, forced positive thinking often makes things worse.<sup>29</sup> Trying to <em>not</em> think about Upsetting Thought X has the same effect as trying to not think about pink elephants: you can&#8217;t help but think about pink elephants.</p>
<p>While being &#8220;lost in the moment&#8221; may provide some of your happiest moments, research has also shown that when you&#8217;re not in flow, taking a step outside the moment and practicing &#8220;mindfulness&#8221; &#8211; that is, paying attention to your situation, your actions, and your feelings &#8211; can reduce chronic pain and depression<sup>30</sup>, reduce stress and anxiety<sup>31</sup>, and produce a wide range of other positive effects.<sup>32</sup> </p>
<p><b>How to be happier</b></p>
<p>Happiness, then, is an enormously complex thing. Worse, we must remember the difference between <a href = "http://www.ted.com/talks/daniel_kahneman_the_riddle_of_experience_vs_memory.html">experienced happiness and remembered happiness</a>. I can only scratch the surface of happiness research in this tiny post. In short, there is no simple fix for unhappiness; no straight path to bliss.</p>
<p>Moreover, happiness will be achieved differently for different people. A person suffering from depression due to chemical imbalance may get more help from a pill than from learning better social skills. A healthy, extroverted, agreeable, conscientious woman can still be unhappy if she is trapped in a bad marriage. Some people were raised by parents whose parenting style did not encourage the development of healthy self-esteem,<sup>33</sup> and they will need to devote significant energy to overcome this deficit. For some, the road to happiness is long. For others, it is short.</p>
<p>Below, I review a variety of methods for becoming happier. Some of them I discussed above; many, I did not.</p>
<p>These methods are ranked roughly in descending order of importance and effect, based on my own reading of the literature. You will need to think about who you are, what makes you happy, what makes you unhappy, and what you can achieve in order to determine which of the below methods should be attempted first. Also, engaging any of these methods may require that you first gain some <a href = "http://lesswrong.com/lw/3w3/how_to_beat_procrastination/">mastery over procrastination</a>.</p>
<p>Here, then, are some methods for becoming happier<sup>34</sup>:</p>
<ol>
<li>If you suffer from serious illness, depression, anxiety, paranoia, schizophrenia, or other serious problems, <em>seek professional help first</em>. <a href="http://www.liveyourlifewell.org/go/live-your-life-well/help">Here&#8217;s how</a>.</li>
<li>Even if you don&#8217;t need professional help, you may benefit from some self-exploration and <em>initial guidance</em> from a reductionistic, naturalistic counselor like <a href="http://naturalism.org/consulting.htm">Tom Clark</a>.</li>
<li>Develop the skills and habits associated with <em>extroversion</em>. First, get some decent clothes and learn how to wear them properly. If you&#8217;re a guy, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Details-Mens-Style-Manual-Ultimate/dp/159240328X/">read</a> <a href="http://www.bradp.com/brads-fashion-bible">these</a> <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Mens-Style-Thinking-Guide-Dress/dp/0312361653/">books</a>. If you&#8217;re a girl, ask your girlfriends or try <a href="http://www.amazon.com/What-Not-Wear-Trinny-Woodall/dp/B0042P5752/">these</a> <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Dress-Your-Best-Complete-Finding/dp/0307236714/">books</a>. Next, learn basic <a href="http://www.amazon.com/How-Talk-Anyone-Success-Relationships/dp/007141858X/">social</a> <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Social-Skills-Picture-School-Beyond/dp/1932565353/">skills</a>, including body language. If you&#8217;re really introverted, practice on <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chatroulette">Chatroulette</a> or <a href="http://www.omegle.com/">Omegle</a> first. Next, spend more time with other people, making small talk. Go to <a href="http://www.meetup.com/find/">meetups</a> and <a href="https://www.couchsurfing.org/">CouchSurfing</a> group activities. Practice your skills until they become more natural, and you find yourself <em>enjoying</em> being in the company of others. Learn how <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Comic-Toolbox-Funny-Even-Youre/dp/1879505215/">to</a> <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Finding-Funny-Fast-Connect-Coworkers/dp/0984099905/">be</a> <a href="http://www.amazon.com/How-Be-Funny-Discovering-Comic/dp/1573922064/">funny</a> and practice that, too.</li>
<li>Improve your <em>self-esteem</em> and <em>optimism</em>. This is tricky. First, too much self-esteem can lead to harmful narcissism.<sup>35</sup> Second, it&#8217;s not clear that a rationalist can endorse several standard methods for improving one&#8217;s self esteem (self-serving bias, basking in reflected glory, self-handicapping)<sup>36</sup> because they toy with self-deception and <a href="http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Anti-epistemology">anti-epistemology</a>. But there are a few safe ways to increase your self-esteem and optimism. Make use of success spirals, vicarious victory, and mental contrasting, <a href="http://lesswrong.com/lw/3w3/how_to_beat_procrastination/#optimism">as described here</a>.</li>
<li>Improve your <em>agreeableness</em>. In simpler terms, this basically means: increase your empathy. Unfortunately, little is currently known (scientifically) about how to increase one&#8217;s empathy.<sup>37</sup> The usual advice about trying to see things from another&#8217;s perspective, and thinking more about people less fortunate than oneself, will have to do for now. The organization <a href="http://www.rootsofempathy.org/">Roots of Empathy</a> may have some good <a href="http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/08/fighting-bullying-with-babies/">advice</a>, too.</li>
<li>Improve your <em>conscientiousness</em>. Conscientiousness involves a variety of tendencies: useful organization, strong work ethic, reliability, planning ahead, etc. Each of these individual skills can be learned. The techniques for <a href="http://lesswrong.com/lw/3w3/how_to_beat_procrastination/">overcoming procrastination</a> are useful, here. Some people report that books like <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Getting-Things-Done-Stress-Free-Productivity/dp/0142000280/"><em>Getting Things Done</em></a> have helped them become more organized and reliable.</li>
<li>Develop the <em>habit of gratitude</em>. Savor the good moments throughout each day.<sup>38</sup> Spend time thinking about happy memories.<sup>39</sup> And at the end of each day, write down 5 things you are grateful for: the roof over your head, your good fortune at being born in a wealthy country, the taste of chocolate, the feel of orgasm&#8230; whatever. It sounds childish, but it works.<sup>40</sup></li>
<li>Find your <em>purpose</em> and live it. One benefit of religion may be that it gives people a sense of meaning and purpose. Without a magical deity to give you purpose, though, you&#8217;ll have to find out for yourself what drives you. It may take a while to find it though, and you may have to dip your hands and mind into many fields. But once you find a path that strongly motivates you and fulfills you, take it. (Of course, you might not find one purpose but many.) Having a strong sense of meaning and purpose has a wide range of positive effects.<sup>41</sup> The &#8216;find a purpose&#8217; recommendation also offers an illustration of how methods may differ in importance for people. &#8216;Find a purpose&#8217; is not always emphasized in happiness literature, but for my own brain chemistry I suspect that finding motivating purposes has made more difference in my life than anything else on this list.</li>
<li>Find a more <em>fulfilling job</em>. Few people do what they love for a living. Getting to that point can be difficult and complicated. You may find that doing 10 other things on this list<em> first</em> is needed for you to have a good chance at getting a more fulfilling job. To figure out which career might be full of tasks that you love to do, a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holland_Codes">RIASEC personality test</a> might help. In the USA, <a href="http://www.onetonline.org/">O*NET</a> can help you find jobs that are in-demand and fit your personality.</li>
<li>Improve your relationship with your <em>romantic partner</em>, or find a different one. As with finding a more fulfilling job, this one is complicated, but can have major impact. If you know your relationship isn&#8217;t going anywhere, you may want to drop it so you can spend more time developing yourself, which will improve future relationships. If you&#8217;re pretty serious about your partner, there are many things you can do to improve the relationship. Despite being touted widely, &#8220;active listening&#8221; doesn&#8217;t predict relationship success.42 Tested advice for improving the chances of relationship success and satisfaction include: (1) do novel and exciting things with your partner often<sup>43</sup>, (2) say positive things to and about your partner at least 5 times more often than you say negative things<sup>44</sup>, (3) spend time each week writing about why your relationship is better than some others you know about<sup>45</sup>, (4) qualify every criticism of your partner with a review of one or two of their positive qualities<sup>46</sup>, and (5) stare into each other&#8217;s eyes more often.<sup>47</sup></li>
<li><em>Go outside</em> and move your body. This will improve your attention and well-being.<sup>48</sup></li>
<li>Spend more time in <em>flow</em>. Drop impossible tasks in favor of tasks that are at the outer limits of your skillset. Make easy and boring tasks more engaging by turning them into games or adding challenges for yourself.</li>
<li><em>Practice mindfulness</em> regularly. When not in flow, step outside yourself and pay attention to how you are behaving, how your emotions are functioning, and how your current actions work toward your goals. <a href="http://www.wikihow.com/Meditate">Meditation</a> may help.</li>
<li><em>Avoid consumerism</em>. The things you own <em>do</em> come to own you, in a sense. Consumerism leads to unhappiness.<sup>49</sup> Unfortunately, you&#8217;ve probably been programmed from birth to see through the lens of consumerism. One way to start deprogramming is by watching <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Century_of_the_Self">this documentary</a> about the deliberate invention of consumerism by <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Bernays">Edward Bernays</a>. After that, you may want to sell or give away many of your possessions and, more importantly, drastically change your purchasing patterns.</li>
</ol>
<p>Note that seeking happiness <em>as an end</em> might be counterproductive. Many people report that constantly checking to see if they are happy actually decreases their happiness &#8211; a report that fits with the research on &#8220;flow.&#8221; It may be better to seek some of the above goals as ends, and happiness will be a side-effect.</p>
<p>Remember: Happiness will not come from reading articles on the internet. Happiness will come when you <em>do</em> the things research recommends.</p>
<p>Good luck!</p>
<p><strong>Notes</strong><br />
<small><sup>1</sup> From a young age through my teenage years, I was known as the pessimist in my family. Of course, I would retort I was merely a <em>realist</em>. Making happiness work within me made me an optimist. These days I&#8217;m pessimistic about many things: For example I think there&#8217;s about a 50/50 chance the human species will survive this century. But it&#8217;s a kind of rationalistic, emotionally detached pessimism. It doesn&#8217;t affect my mood.</small></p>
<p><small><sup>2</sup> Lyubomirsky, King, &amp; Diener (2005).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>3</sup> Steptoe et al. (2005).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>4</sup> Isen et al. (1987); Isen (2004); Fredrickson (1998).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>5</sup> Isen (2002); Morris (1999).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>6</sup> Beck (2008); Ellis (2001).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>7</sup> Age and happiness are unrelated (Lykken 1999), age accounting for less than 1% of the variation in people&#8217;s happiness (Inglehart 1990; Myers &amp; Diener 1997).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>8</sup> Despite being treated for depressive disorders twice as often as men (Nolen-Hoeksema 2002), women report just as high levels of well-being as men do (Myers 1992).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>9</sup> Apparently, the joys and stresses of parenthood balance each other out, as people with and without children are equally happy (Argyle 2001).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>10</sup> Both IQ and educational attainment appear to be unrelated to happiness (Diener et al. 2009; Ross &amp; Van Willigen 1997).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>11</sup> Good-looking people enjoy huge advantages, but do not report greater happiness than others (Diener et al. 1995).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>12</sup> The correlation between income and happiness is surprisingly weak (Diener &amp; Seligman 2004; Diener et al. 1993; Johnson &amp; Krueger 2006). One problem may be that higher income contributes to greater materialism, which impedes happiness (Frey &amp; Stutzer 2002; Kasser et al. 2004; Solberg et al. 2002; Kasser 2002; Van Boven 2005; Nickerson et al. 2003; Kahneman et al. 2006).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>13</sup> Those with disabling health conditions are happier than you might think (Myers 1992; Riis et al. 2005; Argyle 1999).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>14</sup> Those who are satisfied with their social life are moderately more happy than others (Diener &amp; Seligman 2004; Myers 1999; Diener &amp; Seligman 2002).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>15</sup> Religiosity correlates with happiness (Abdel-Kahlek 2005; Myers 2008), though it may be religious attendance and not religious belief that matters (Chida et al. 2009).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>16</sup> Past happiness is the best predictor of future happiness (Lucas &amp; Diener 2008). Happiness is surprisingly unmoved by external factors (Lykken &amp; Tellegen 1996), because genes accounts for about 50% of the variance in happiness (Lyubomirsky et al. 2005; Stubbe et al. 2005).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>17</sup> Married people are happier than those who are single or divorced (Myers &amp; Diener 1995; Diener et al. 2000), and marital satisfaction predicts happiness (Proulx et al. 2007).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>18</sup> Unemployment makes people very unhappy (Argyle 2001), and job satisfaction is strongly correlated with happiness (Judge &amp; Klinger 2008; Warr 1999).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>19</sup> Lyubomirsky et al. (2005); Stubbe et al. (2005).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>20</sup> Brickman et al. (1978).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>21</sup> Weiss et al. (2008).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>22</sup> Lucas &amp; Diener (2008); Fleeson et al. (2002).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>23</sup> Lucas (2008) and Lyubomirsky et al. (2006).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>24</sup> On the learnability of extroversion, see Fleeson et al. (2002); Bouchard &amp; Loehlin (2001); McNeil &amp; Fleeson (2006). On the learnability of agreeableness, see Graziano &amp; Tobin (2009). On the learnability of conscientiousness, see Roberts et al. (2009). On the learnability of self-esteem, see Barrett et al. (1999); Borras et al. (2009). On the learnability of optimism, see Lindsley et al. (1995); Hans (2000); Feldman &amp; Matjasko (2005). On the learnability of character traits in general, see Peterson &amp; Seligman (2004).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>25</sup> Schwarz &amp; Strack (1999).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>26</sup> Argyle (1999); Hagerty (2000).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>27</sup> Gilbert (2006), Hsee &amp; Hastie (2005), Wilson &amp; Gilbert (2005).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>28</sup> Csikszentmihalyi (1990, 1998); Gardner, Csikszentmihalyi &amp; Damon (2002); Nakamura &amp; Csikszentmihalyi (2009).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>29</sup> Wegner (1989).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>30</sup> Kabat-Zinn (1982).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>31</sup> Shapiro et al. (1998); Chang et al. (2004).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>32</sup> Grossman et al. (2004).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>33</sup> Felson (1989); Harter (1998); Furnham &amp; Cheng (2000); Wissink et al. (2006).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>34</sup> There are several disputed and uncertain methods I did not mention. One example is &#8220;expressive writing.&#8221; Compare Lepore &amp; Smyth (2002) and Spera et al. (1994) to Seery et al. (2008). Moreover, talking with a others about bad experiences may help, but maybe not: see Zech &amp; Rimé (2005). Another disputed method is that of improving mood by thinking quicker and more varied thoughts: see Pronin &amp; Jacobs (2008). I&#8217;m waiting for more research to come in on that one. The results of &#8220;affectionate writing&#8221; are mixed: see Floyd et al. (2009). The effects of household plants are also mixed: see Bringslimark et al. (2009). There remains <a href="http://mentalhealthnews.org/a-genuine-smile-found-to-improve-health-happiness/84834/">debate</a> on whether forced smiles and laughter improve happiness. Finally, see the review of literature in Helliwell (2011).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>35</sup> Crocker &amp; Park (2004); Bushman &amp; Baumeister (1998); Bushman &amp; Baumeister (2002).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>36</sup> Self-serving bias is the tendency to attribute success to internal causes (oneself), but attribute failure to external causes. Basking in reflected glory is an attempt to enhance one&#8217;s image by announcing and <a href="http://lesswrong.com/lw/i7/belief_as_attire/">displaying</a> association with a well-perceived group or individual. Self-handicapping is a way of saving face by sabotaging one&#8217;s performance in order to provide an excuse for the failure.</small></p>
<p><small><sup>37</sup> See, for example: Stepien &amp; Baernstein (2006); de Vignemont &amp; Singer (2006); Heln &amp; Singer (2008).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>38</sup> Bryant &amp; Veroff (2007).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>39</sup> Burton &amp; King (2004).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>40</sup> Emmons &amp; McCullough (2003); Lyubomirsky et al. (2005); Peterson (2006).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>41</sup> Park &amp; Folkman (1997); Bauer et al. (2008); Lee et al. (2006); Reker et al. (1987); Ulmer et al. (1991); Langer &amp; Rodin (1976).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>42</sup> Gottman et al. (1998); Hahlweg et al. (1984); Jacobson et al. (1987).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>43</sup> Aron et al. (2000); Aron et al. (2003).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>44</sup> Gottman (1984).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>45</sup> Buunk et al. (2001).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>46</sup> Murray &amp; Holmes (1999).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>47</sup> Aron et al. (2000). As for how to find, attract, and keep a great romantic partner in the first place, well: that will have to wait for another article. And of course, perhaps you&#8217;re not looking for a <em>long term</em> romantic relationship at all. That&#8217;s another article, too.</small></p>
<p><small><sup>48</sup> Berto (2005); Hartig et al. (2003); Kaplan (1993, 2001); Price (2008); Berman et al. (2008); Tennessen &amp; Cimprich (1995).</small></p>
<p><small><sup>49</sup> Frey &amp; Stutzer (2002); Kasser et al. (2004); Solberg et al. (2002); Kasser (2002); Van Boven (2005); Nickerson et al. (2003); Kahneman et al. (2006).</small></p>
<p><strong>References</strong><br />
<small>Argyle (1999). Causes and correlates of happiness. In Kahneman, Diener, &amp; Schwartz (Eds.), <em>Well-being: The foundations of hedonic psychology</em>. New York: Sage.</small></p>
<p><small>Argyle (2001). <em>The Psychology of Happiness</em> (2nd ed.). New York: Routledge.</small></p>
<p><small>Aron, Norman, Aron, McKenna, &amp; Heyman (2000). Couples shared participation in novel and arousing activities and experienced relationship quality. <em>Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 78</em>: 273-283.</small></p>
<p><small>Aron, Norman, Aron, &amp; Lewandowski (2003). Shared participation in self- expanding activities: Positive effects on experienced marital quality. In Noller &amp; Feeney (Eds.), <em>Marital interaction</em> (pp. 177-196). Cambridge University Press.</small></p>
<p><small>Barrett, Webster, Wallis (1999). Adolescent self-esteem and cognitive skills training: a school-based intervention. <em>Journal of Child and Family Studies 8(2)</em>: 217-227.</small></p>
<p><small>Bauer, McAdams, &amp; Pals (2008). Narrative identity and eudaimonic well-being. <em>Journal of Happiness Studies, 9</em>: 81-104.</small></p>
<p><small>Beck (2008). <a href="http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Beck-The-Evolution-of-the-Cognitive-Model-of-Depression-and-Its-Neurobiological-Correlates.pdf">The evolution of the cognitive model of depression and its neurobiological correlates</a>. <em>American Journal of Psychiatry, 165</em>: 969-977.</small></p>
<p><small>Berman, Jonides, &amp; Kaplan (2008). <a href="http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Berman-The-cognitive-benefits-of-interacting-with-nature.pdf">The cognitive benefits of interacting with nature</a>. <em>Psychological Science, 19</em>: 1207-1212.</small></p>
<p><small>Berto (2005). Exposure to restorative environments helps restore attentional capacity. <em>Journal of Environmental Psychology, 25</em>: 249-259.</small></p>
<p><small>Brickman, Coates, &amp; Janoff-Bulman (1978). Lottery winners and accident victims: Is happiness relative? <em>Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 36</em>: 917-927.</small></p>
<p><small>Bringslimark, Hartig, &amp; Patil (2009). The psychological benefits of indoor plants: A critical review of the experimental literature. Journal of<em>Environmental Psychology, 29(4)</em>: 422-433.</small></p>
<p><small>Bryant &amp; Veroff (2006).<em> <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Savoring-New-Model-Positive-Experience/dp/0805851208/">Savoring: A new model of positive experience</a></em>. Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum.</small></p>
<p><small>Borras, Boucherie, Mohr, Lecomte, Perroud, &amp; Huguelet (2009). Increasing self-esteem: Efficacy for a group intervention for individuals with severe mental disorders. <em>European Psychiatry, 24</em>: 307-316.</small></p>
<p><small>Bouchard &amp; Loehlin (2001). Genes, evolution, and personality. <em>Behavior Genetics, 31</em>: 243–273.</small></p>
<p><small>Burton &amp; King (2004). The health benefits of writing about intensely positive experiences. <em>Journal of Research in Personality, 38</em>: 150-163.</small></p>
<p><small>Bushman &amp; Baumeister (1998). <a href="http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Bushman-Baumeister-Threatened-egotism-narcissism-self-esteem-and-direct-and-displaced-aggression.pdf">Threatened egotism, narcissism, self-esteem, and direct and displaced aggression: Does self-love or self-hate lead to violence?</a> <em>Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 75(1)</em>: 219-229.</small></p>
<p><small>Bushman &amp; Baumeister (2002). Does self-love or self-hate lead to violence? <em>Journal of Research in Personality, 36(6)</em>: 543-545.</small></p>
<p><small>Buunk, Oldersma, &amp; de Dreu (2001). Enhancing satisfaction through downward comparison: The role of relational discontent and individual differences in social comparison orientation. <em>Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 37</em>: 452-467.</small></p>
<p><small>Chang, Palesh, Caldwell, Glasgow, Abramson, Luskin, Gill, Burke, &amp; Koopman (2004). The effects of a mindfulness-based stress reduction program on stress, mindfulness self-efficacy, and positive states of mind. <em>Stress and Health, 20(3)</em>: 141-147.</small></p>
<p><small>Chida, Steptoe, &amp; Powell (2009). <a href="http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Chida-Religiosity-Spirituality-and-Mortality.pdf">Religiosity/Spirituality and Mortality</a>. <em>Psychotherapy and Psychosomatics</em>, 78(2): 81-90.</small></p>
<p><small>Crocker &amp; Park (2004). <a href="http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Crocker-Park-The-costly-pursuit-of-self-esteem.pdf">The costly pursuit of self-esteem</a>. <em>Psychological Bulletin, 130</em>: 392-414.</small></p>
<p><small>Csikszentmihalyi (1990). <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/0061339202/">Flow: The Psychology of Optimal Experience</a></em>. New York: Harper and Row.</small></p>
<p><small>Csikszentmihalyi (1998). <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/0465024114/">Finding Flow: The Psychology of Engagement With Everyday Life</a></em>. Basic Books.</small></p>
<p><small>Diener, Wolsic, &amp; Fujita (1995). <a href="http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Diener-Physical-Attractiveness-and-Subjective-Well-Being.pdf">Physical attractiveness and subjective well-being</a>. <em>Journal of Personality and Social Psychology</em>, 69: 120-129.</small></p>
<p><small>Diener, Gohm, Suh, &amp; Oishi (2000). <a href="http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Diener-Similarity-of-the-relations-between-marital-status-and-subjective-well-being-across-cultures.pdf">Similarity of the relations between marital status and subjective well-being across cultures</a>. <em>Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology</em>, 31: 419-436.</small></p>
<p><small>Diener &amp; Seligman (2002). <a href="http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Diener-Very-Happy-People.pdf">Very happy people</a>. <em>Psychological Science</em>, 13: 80-83.</small></p>
<p><small>Diener &amp; Seligman (2004). <a href="http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Diener-Beyond-money.pdf">Beyond money: Toward an economy of well-being</a>. <em>Psychological Science in the Public Interest</em>, 5(1): 1-31.</small></p>
<p><small>Diener, Kesebir, &amp; Tov (2009). Happiness. In Leary &amp; Hoyle (Eds.), <em>Handbook of Individual Differences in Social Behavior</em> (pp. 147-160). New York: Guilford.</small></p>
<p><small>Ellis (2001). <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/1573928798/">Overcoming destructive beliefs, feelings, and behaviors: New directions for Rational Emotive Behavior Therapy</a></em>. Amherst, NY: Prometheus Books.</small></p>
<p><small>Emmons &amp; McCullough (2003). <a href="http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Emmons-McCullough-Counting-blessings-versus-burdens.pdf">Counting blessings versus burdens: An experimental investigation of gratitude and subjective well-being in daily life</a>. <em>Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 84</em>: 377-389.</small></p>
<p><small>Feldman &amp; Matjasko (2005). <a href="http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/Feldman-The-role-of-school-based-extracurricular-activities-in-adolescent-development.pdf">The role of school-based extracurricular activities in adolescent development: A comprehensive review and future directions</a>. <em>Review of Educational Research, 75(2)</em>, 159-210.</small></p>
<p><small>Felson (1989). Parents and the reflected appraisal process: A longitudinal analysis. <em>Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 56</em>: 965-971.</small></p>
<p><small>Fleeson, Malanos, &amp; Achille (2002). <a href="http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Fleeson-An-intraindividual-process-approach-to-the-relationship-between-extraversion-and-positive-affect.pdf">An intraindividual process approach to the relationship between extraversion and positive affect: is acting extraverted as &#8220;good&#8221; as being extraverted?</a> <em>Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 83(6)</em>: 1409-1422.</small></p>
<p><small>Floyd, Hesse, &amp; Pauley (2009). Writing affectionate letters reduces stress: replication and extension. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the NCA 95th annual convention, Chicago, IL, Nov. 11, 2009.</small></p>
<p><small>Fredrickson (1998). <a href="http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Fredrickson-What-good-are-positive-emotions.pdf">What good are positive emotions?</a> <em>Review of General Psychology, 2</em>: 300-319.</small></p>
<p><small>Frey &amp; Stutzer (2002). <a href="http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Frey-What-can-economists-learn-from-happiness-research.pdf">What can economists learn from happiness research?</a> <em>Journal of Economic Literature</em>, 40: 402-435.</small></p>
<p><small>Furnham &amp; Cheng (2000). Perceived parental behavior, self-esteem and happiness. <em>Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology, 35(10)</em>: 463-470.</small></p>
<p><small>Gardner, Csikszentmihalyi, &amp; Damon (2002). <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Good-Business-Leadership-Making-Meaning/dp/014200409X/">Good Business: Leadership, Flow, and the Making of Meaning</a></em>. Basic Books.</small></p>
<p><small>Gilbert (2006). <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/1400077427/">Stumbling on happiness</a></em>. New York: Knopf.</small></p>
<p><small>Gottman (1984). <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Why-Marriages-Succeed-Fail-Yours/dp/0684802414/">Why marriages succeed or fail</a></em>. New York: Simon &amp; Schuster.</small></p>
<p><small>Gottman, Coan, Carrere, &amp; Swanson (1998). Predicting marital happiness and stability from newlywed interactions. <em>Journal of Marriage and the Family, 60</em>: 5-22.</small></p>
<p><small>Graziano &amp; Tobin (2009). Agreeableness. In Leary &amp; Hoyle (Eds.), <em>Handbook of individual differences in social behavior</em> (pp. 46-61). New York: Guilford.</small></p>
<p><small>Grossman, Niemann, Schmidt, &amp; Walach (2004). <a href="http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Grossman-Mindfulness-based-stress-reduction-and-health-benefits.pdf">Mindfulness-based stress reduction and health benefits: A meta-analysis</a>. <em>Journal of Psychosomatic Research, 57</em>: 35-43.</small></p>
<p><small>Hagerty (2000). Social comparisons of income in one&#8217;s community: Evidence from national surveys of income and happiness. <em>Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 78</em>: 746-771.</small></p>
<p><small>Hahlweg, Schindler, Revensdorf, &amp; Brengelmann (1984). The Munich marital therapy study. In Hahlweg &amp; Jacobson (Eds.), <em>Marital interaction: Analysis and modification</em> (pp. 3-26). New York: Guilford Press.</small></p>
<p><small>Hans (2000). <a href="http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/Hans-A-meta-analysis-of-the-effects-of-adventure-programming-on-locus-of-control.pdf">A meta-analysis of the effects of adventure programming on locus of control</a>. <em>Journal of Contemporary Psychotherapy, 30(1)</em>: 33-60.</small></p>
<p><small>Harter (1998). The development of self-representations. In Eisenberg (Ed.), <em>Handbook of child psychology: Vol. 3. Social, emotional, and personality development</em>. New York: Wiley.</small></p>
<p><small>Hartig, Evans, Jamner, Davis, &amp; Garling (2003). <a href="http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Hartig-Tracking-restoration-in-natural-and-urban-field-settings.pdf">Tracking restoration in natural and urban field settings</a>. <em>Journal of Environmental Psychology, 23</em>: 109-123.</small></p>
<p>Helliwell (2011). <a href="http://www.csls.ca/events/2011/helliwell.pdf">How can subjective well-being be improved?</a></p>
<p><small>Heln &amp; Singer (2008). I feel how you feel but not always: the empathic brain and its modulation. <em>Current Opinion in Neurobiology, 18(2)</em>: 153-158.</small></p>
<p><small>Hsee &amp; Hastie (2005). <a href="http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Hsee-Hastie-Decision-and-experience-why-dont-we-choose-what-makes-us-happy.pdf">Decision and experience: Why don&#8217;t we choose what makes us happy?</a> <em>Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 10(1)</em>: 31-37.</small></p>
<p><small>Inglehart (1990). <em>Culture shift in advanced industrial society</em>. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.</small></p>
<p><small>Isen (2002). <a href="http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Isen-A-role-for-neuropsychology-in-understanding-the-facilitating-influence-of-positive-affect.pdf">A role for neuropsychology in understanding the facilitating influence of positive affect on social behavior and cognitive processes</a>. In Snyder &amp; Lopez (Eds.), <em>Handbook of positive psychology</em> (pp. 528-540). New York: Oxford University Press.</small></p>
<p><small>Isen (2004). Some perspectives on positive feelings and emotions: Positive affect facilitates thinking and problem solving. In Manstead, Frijda, &amp; Fischer (Eds.), <em>Feelings and emotions: The Amsterdam symposium</em> (pp. 263-281). New York: Cambridge University Press.</small></p>
<p><small>Isen, Daubman, &amp; Nowicki (1987). Positive affect facilitates creative problemsolving. <em>Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 52</em>: 1122–1131.</small></p>
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<p><small>Johnson &amp; Krueger (2006). &#8220;How money buys happiness: Genetic and environmental processes linking finances and life satisfaction.&#8221; <em>Journal of Personality and Social Psychology</em>, 90: 680-691.</small></p>
<p><small>Judge &amp; Klinger (2008). Job satisfaction: Subjective well-being at work. In Eid &amp; Larsen (Eds.), <em>The science of subjective well-being</em> (pp. 393-413). New York: Guilford.</small></p>
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<p><small>Kahneman, Krueger, Schkade, Schwarz, &amp; Stone (2006). &#8220;<a href="http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Kahneman-Would-you-be-happier-if-you-were-richer-A-focusing-illusion.pdf">Would you be happier if you were richer? A focusing illusion</a>.&#8221;<em>Science</em>, 312: 1908-1910.</small></p>
<p><small>Kaplan (1993). <a href="http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Kaplan-The-role-of-nature-in-the-context-of-the-workplace.pdf">The role of nature in the context of the workplace</a>. <em>Landscaping and Urban Planning, 26</em>: 193-201.</small></p>
<p><small>Kaplan (2001). The nature of the view from home: Psychological benefits. <em>Environment and Behavior, 33(4)</em>: 507-542.</small></p>
<p><small>Kasser (2002). <em>The high prices of materialism</em>. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.</small></p>
<p><small>Kasser, Ryan, Couchman, &amp; Sheldon (2004). Materialistic values: Their causes and consequences. In Kasser &amp; Kanner (Eds.), <em>Psychology and consumer culture: The struggle for a good life in a materialistic world</em>. Washington DC: American Psychological Association.</small></p>
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<p><small>Lepore &amp; Smyth, eds. (2002). <em>The writing cure: How expressive writing promotes health and emotional well-being</em>. Washington, DC: American Psychological Association.</small></p>
<p><small>Lindsley, Brass, &amp; Thomas (1995). <a href="http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/Lindsley-Efficacy-performance-spirals-A-multilevel-perspective.pdf">Efficacy-performance spirals: A multilevel perspective</a>. <em>Academy of Management Review, 20(3)</em>: 645-678.</small></p>
<p><small>Lucas (2008). Personality and subjective well-being. In Eid &amp; Larsen (Eds.), <em>The science of subjective well-being</em> (pp. 171-194). New York: Guilford.</small></p>
<p><small>Lucas &amp; Diener (2008). <a href="http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Lucas-Diener-Personality-and-subjective-well-being.pdf">Personality and subjective well-being</a>. In John, Robins, &amp; Pervin (Eds.), <em>Handbook of personality: Theory and research, 3rd ed.</em> (pp. 795-814). New York: Guilford.</small></p>
<p><small>Lyubomirsky, Sheldon, &amp; Schkade (2005). <a href="http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Lyubomirsky-Pursuing-happiness-The-architecture-of-sustainable-change.pdf">Pursuing happiness: The architecture of sustainable change</a>. <em>Review of General Psychology</em>, 9(2), 111-131.</small></p>
<p><small>Lyubomirsky, Tkach, &amp; DiMatteo (2006). <a href="http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Lyubomirsky-What-are-the-differences-between-happiness-and-self-esteem.pdf">What are the differences between happiness and self-esteem?</a> <em>Social Indicators Research, 78</em>: 363-404.</small></p>
<p><small>Lyubomirsky, King, &amp; Diener (2005). <a href="http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Lyubomirsky-The-benefits-of-frequent-positive-affect.pdf">The benefits of frequent positive affect: Does happiness lead to success?</a> <em>Psychological Bulletin, 131</em>: 803-855.</small></p>
<p><small>Lykken &amp; Tellegen (1996). <a href="http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Lykken-Happiness-Is-a-Stochastic-Phenomenon.pdf">Happiness is a stochastic phenomenon</a>. <em>Psychological Science</em>, 7: 186-189.</small></p>
<p><small>Lykken (1999). <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/0312263333/">Happiness: The nature and nurture of joy and contentment</a></em>. New York: St. Martin&#8217;s.</small></p>
<p><small>McNeil &amp; Fleeson (2006). The causal effect of extraversion on positive affect and neuroticism on negative affect: Manipulating state extraversion and state neuroticism in an experimental approach. <em>Journal of Research in Personality, 40</em>: 529-550.</small></p>
<p><small>Morris (1999). The mood system. In Kahneman, Diener, &amp; Schwatrz (Eds.), <em>Well-being: The foundations of hedonic psychology</em> (pp. 169-189). New York: Russell Sage Foundation.</small></p>
<p><small>Murray &amp; Holmes (1999). The (mental) ties that bind: Cognitive structures that predict relationship resilience. <em>Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 77</em>: 1228-1244.</small></p>
<p><small>Myers (1992). <em>The pursuit of happiness: Who is happy, and why</em>. New York: Morrow.</small></p>
<p><small>Myers (1999). Close relationships and quality of life. In Kahnemann, Diener, &amp; Schwarz (Eds.), <em>Well-being: The foundations of hedonic psychology</em>. New York: Sage.</small></p>
<p><small>Myers &amp; Diener (1995). <a href="http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Myers-who-is-happy.pdf">Who is happy?</a> <em>Psychological Science</em>, 6: 10-19.</small></p>
<p><small>Myers &amp; Diener (1997). The pursuit of happiness. <em>Scientific American, Special Issue 7</em>: 40-43.</small></p>
<p><small>Nakamura &amp; Csikszentmihalyi (2009). Flow theory and research. In Lopez &amp; Snyder (Eds.), <em>Oxford handbook of positive psychology</em> (2nd ed., pp. 195-206). New York: Oxford.</small></p>
<p><small>Nickerson, Schwartz, Diener, &amp; Kahnemann (2003). <a href="http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Nickerson-Zeroing-in-on-the-dark-side-of-the-american-dream.pdf">Zeroing in on the dark side of the American dream: A closer look at the negative consequences of the goal for financial success</a>. <em>Psychological Science</em>, 14(6): 531-536.</small></p>
<p><small>Park &amp; Folkman (1997). Meaning in the context of stress and coping. <em>Review of General Psychology, 1</em>: 115-144.</small></p>
<p><small>Peterson (2006).<em> <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Primer-Positive-Psychology-Christopher-Peterson/dp/0195188330/">A primer on positive psychology</a></em>. New York: Oxford University Press.</small></p>
<p><small>Peterson &amp; Seligman (2004). <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Character-Strengths-Virtues-Handbook-Classification/dp/0195167015/">Character strengths and virtues: A Handbook of classification</a></em>. New York: Oxford University Press.</small></p>
<p><small>Price (2008). Research roundup: Get out of town. <em>gradPSYCH, 6(3)</em>: 10.</small></p>
<p><small>Pronin &amp; Jacobs (2008). <a href="http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Pronin-Jacobs-Thought-speed-mood-and-the-experience-of-mental-motion.pdf">Thought speed, mood, and the experience of mental motion</a>. <em>Perspectives on Psychological Science, 3</em>: 461-485.</small></p>
<p><small>Proulx, Helms, &amp; Cheryl (2007). <a href="http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Proulx-Marital-Quality-and-Personal-Well%C3%A2%E2%82%AC%C2%90Being-A-Meta%C3%A2%E2%82%AC%C2%90Analysis.pdf">Marital quality and personal well-being: A meta-analysis</a>. <em>Journal of Marriage and Family</em>, 69: 576-593.</small></p>
<p><small>Reker, Peacock, &amp; Wong (1987). Meaning and purpose in life and well-being: a life-span perspective. <em>The Journal of Gerontology, 42(1)</em>: 44-49.</small></p>
<p><small>Riis, Loewenstein, Baron, Jepson, Fagerlin, &amp; Ubel (2005). Ignorance of hedonic adaptation to hemodialysis: A study using ecological momentary assessment. <em>Journal of Experimental Psychology: General</em>, 134: 3-9.</small></p>
<p><small>Roberts, Jackson, Fayard, Edmonds, &amp; Meints (2009). Conscientiousness. In Leary &amp; Hoyle (Eds.), <em>Handbook of individual differences in social behavior</em> (pp. 369-381). New York: Guilford.</small></p>
<p><small>Ross &amp; Van Willigen (1997). <a href="http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Ross-Education-and-the-subjective-quality-of-life.pdf">Education and the subjective quality of life</a>. <em>Journal of Health &amp; Social Behavior</em>, 38: 275-297.</small></p>
<p><small>Schwartz &amp; Strack (1999). Reports of subjective well-being: Judgmental processes and their methodological implications. In Kahneman, Diener, &amp; Schwartz (Eds.), <em>Well-being: The foundations of hedonic psychology</em>. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.</small></p>
<p><small>Seery, Silver, Holman, Ence, &amp; Chu (2008). Expressing thoughts and feelings following a collective trauma: Immediate responses to 9/11 predict negative outcomes in a national sample. <em>Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 76(4)</em>: 657-667.</small></p>
<p><small>Shapiro, Schwartz, &amp; Bonner (1998). The effects of mindfulness-based stress reduction on medical and pre-medical students. <em>Journal of Behavioral Medicine, 21</em>: 581-599.</small></p>
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		<title>When do you argue for a side instead of considering new data?</title>
		<link>http://appliedrationality.org/2013/04/25/when-do-you-argue-for-a-side-instead-of-considering-new-data/</link>
		<comments>http://appliedrationality.org/2013/04/25/when-do-you-argue-for-a-side-instead-of-considering-new-data/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 25 Apr 2013 17:00:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Leah Libresco</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Rationality Checklist]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://appliedrationality.org/?p=1749</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When you filled out our survey on the Rationality Checklist, most of the habits we asked you about in the first installment were about noticing. Noticing you&#8217;re falling into a bad epistemological habit is useful data; it means you have the opportunity to intervene. So, we asked you about a bias that, if unchecked, screens [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When you filled out our survey on <a href="http://appliedrationality.org/checklist/">the Rationality Checklist</a>, most of the habits we asked you about in the first installment were about <em>noticing</em>.  Noticing you&#8217;re falling into a bad epistemological habit is useful data; it means you have the opportunity to intervene.  So, we asked you about a bias that, if unchecked, screens you off from considering new information:</p>
<blockquote><p>I notice when my mind is arguing for a side (instead of evaluating which side to choose), and flag this as an error mode. (Example: Noticed myself explaining to myself why outsourcing my clothes shopping does make sense, rather than evaluating whether to do it.)</p>
</blockquote>
<p>We&#8217;d list triggers for this kind of thinking, but we&#8217;d end up going on and on: any time you&#8217;re in an argument, when you are reconsidering a decision, when you look at data that&#8217;s related to something <a href="http://www.paulgraham.com/identity.html">that touches your identity</a>, etc. Small wonder that nearly a third of respondents had caught themselves doing this one to two days before taking the survey.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://appliedrationality.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/chklist-wk1-side.jpg"><img class="aligncenter  wp-image-1748" alt="chklist wk1 side" src="http://appliedrationality.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/chklist-wk1-side.jpg" width="589" height="452" /></a></p>
<p>The first step is <em>noticing</em> you&#8217;re not really listening to the data, but what then?  Several of you had stories to share about how you adjusted once you caught yourself out.</p>
<blockquote><p>I decided recently to replace my old slate roof with a new slate roof, despite the high cost of that material.  I asked a friend who was a realtor if she&#8217;d noticed that houses with slate roofs are easier to sell, or have higher resale value, ostensibly to help me make the decision of what kind of roof to buy (I had in mind subtracting the discounted future increment to the house&#8217;s resale value from the current premium cost of the slate, as one component of the decision problem).  While she was answering, though, I remembered that I&#8217;d already made the decision to go with slate, and therefore was only seeking confirmation of what I already believed.  I recognized this as irrational, and that realization led me to reexamine why I wanted to spend the extra money.  </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Sometimes, pausing to wonder <em>why</em> you&#8217;re reluctant to hear new evidence can help you notice information you weren&#8217;t consciously factoring into your decision:</p>
<blockquote><p>I spent last week trying to decide on a smartphone plan to replace my previous, voice-only plan.  I spent several days comparing prices, and realized that my brain kept trying to argue for my current company even though it wasn&#8217;t the best price.  I examined my reasons more carefully, and realized that there really were factors in the decision that were important to me other than money&#8211;company ethics, my personal experience with each company, and quality of customer support, specifically.  I did end up choosing to stay with my current company, but count this as an example of #3 since noticing allowed me to evaluate based on the factors I really did value, rather than either unexamined factors or unexamined bias.  <strong>My brain isn&#8217;t always wrong, but I like to know what it&#8217;s really doing.</strong>  [emphasis added]&#8220;</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Rationality isn&#8217;t about overruling or radically overhauling your brain.  It&#8217;s about getting a better sense of how it works so you can confidently rely on it to do what it does best and be a little more deliberate and careful when you know you&#8217;re in a blind spot.  For example, in the class we teach <a href="http://appliedrationality.org/workshops/">at workshops</a> on the Fight/Flight/Freeze response the goal is to be able to notice <em>why</em> you&#8217;re getting skittish but to use the tools we teach to <em>act</em> on that data in a less panicky way.</p>
<p><em>Check out all the results and stories from out Rationality Checklist survey by browsing the <a href="http://appliedrationality.org/category/rationality-checklist/">‘Rationality Checklist’</a> category</em></p>
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		<title>When do you Notice Confusion?</title>
		<link>http://appliedrationality.org/2013/04/22/when-do-you-notice-confusion/</link>
		<comments>http://appliedrationality.org/2013/04/22/when-do-you-notice-confusion/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Apr 2013 19:10:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Leah Libresco</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Rationality Checklist]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://appliedrationality.org/?p=1736</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We sent out the survey form of our Rationality Checklist and over 250 of you responded (N=283 to be precise). We&#8217;ll be sending out part two of four to our newsletter in two weeks, so sign up if you&#8217;d like to contribute data! The first rationality habit we asked you about was Noticing Confusion: When [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We sent out the survey form of <a href="http://appliedrationality.org/checklist/">our Rationality Checklist</a> and over 250 of you responded (N=283 to be precise). We&#8217;ll be sending out part two of four <a href="http://appliedrationality.org/newsletter-popup/">to our newsletter</a> in two weeks, so sign up if you&#8217;d like to contribute data!</p>
<p>The first rationality habit we asked you about was <strong>Noticing Confusion</strong>:</p>
<blockquote><p><em>When I see something odd &#8211; something that doesn&#8217;t fit with what I&#8217;d ordinarily expect, given my other beliefs &#8211; I successfully notice, promote it to conscious attention and think &#8220;I notice that I am confused&#8221; or some equivalent thereof. (Example: You think that your flight is scheduled to depart on Thursday. On Tuesday, you get an email from Travelocity advising you to prepare for your flight “tomorrow”, which seems wrong. Do you successfully raise this anomaly to the level of conscious attention?)</em></p>
</blockquote>
<p>This turned out to be a skill a lot of our respondents use frequently. When we asked you to remember the last time you consciously noticed confusion, here&#8217;s what you answered:</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://appliedrationality.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/chklist-wk1-confusion1.jpg"><img class="aligncenter  wp-image-1738" alt="chklist wk1 confusion" src="http://appliedrationality.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/chklist-wk1-confusion1.jpg" width="418" height="362" /></a></p>
<p>And several of you had stories to share about how noticing confusion had helped you ask new questions and get curious:</p>
<blockquote><p>Someone recently nerd-sniped me with the question of why there are two high tides per day on opposite sides of the Earth. I started with my cached answer (that the earth is more strongly drawn to the moon than is the water on the far side), but recognized that this predicts that the near and far tides should differ by no more than 1-2%, and that this was not actually the case. So I noticed that I am confused!</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Or how noticing confusion broke you out of a rote pattern in time to catch an error: </p>
<blockquote><p>At my work we have an off-site file warehouse with some two thousand banker boxes of files.  One of my jobs is to cull any files that fall under certain criteria (age of case, age of client etc.). It involves a lot of paperwork and tracking to make sure I always know where every file is at all times.  At one point, while moving a file from a box to a cull pile, I noticed that the destroy date for this file on my list of files to cull and the same date on my master list (which the cull list is derived from by hand, due to no access to custom database reports) did not match.  My first impulse was to just go with the longer date, drop the file back into its box and move on, but they should have matched, and I was curious on what I messed up.  It ended up that a bad copy-paste between lists offset the cull dates on one list by a few files, rendering the list useless and dangerous.  I had to go back through the week&#8217;s work to double check things and saved some files from being prematurely destroyed.  It was extra work, but it stopped a much larger disaster.  Now I have extra checks in place to verify lists are proper before they are used.
</p>
</blockquote>
<p>At our workshops, we work on training people to notice and welcome confusion, because it&#8217;s a valuable signal that something is wrong with your map of the world.  In addition to training a general <em>awareness</em> of confusion, we help participants learn about Bayes theorem or reframing techniques or miscalibrated aversions, so you can increase your sensitivity to confusion in areas normally occluded by cognitive bias.</p>
<p><em>Check out all the results and stories from out Rationality Checklist survey by browsing the <a href="http://appliedrationality.org/category/rationality-checklist/">&#8216;Rationality Checklist&#8217;</a> category</em></p>
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		<title>Hey! You wanna bet?</title>
		<link>http://appliedrationality.org/2013/04/17/hey-you-wanna-bet/</link>
		<comments>http://appliedrationality.org/2013/04/17/hey-you-wanna-bet/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Apr 2013 19:56:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Leah Libresco</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://appliedrationality.org/?p=1728</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Emergent Math has a blog post talking about how he and his daughter found an opportunity for physics on a snow day. They collected snow in a large cup and marked both their predictions of how much water there would be when it melted. I won’t spoil the ending, you’ll have to go to his [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Emergent Math has a blog post talking about how <a href="http://emergentmath.com/2013/04/16/what-how-do-you-spend-your-two-hour-school-delays-water-content-in-a-snow-cylinder/">he and his daughter found an opportunity for physics on a snow day</a>. They collected snow in a large cup and marked both their predictions of how much water there would be when it melted.</p>
<p><center><a href="http://appliedrationality.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/snow-cup-bet.jpg"><img src="http://appliedrationality.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/snow-cup-bet-300x300.jpg" alt="snow cup bet" width="300" height="300" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-1729" /></a></center></p>
<p>I won’t spoil the ending, you’ll have to go to his blog to see how accurate they were, but, before you click through, try to make a guess of your own.</p>
<p>At <a href="http://appliedrationality.org/workshops/">our rationality workshops</a>, participants are greeted on day one with course booklets, schedules, and a bag of poker chips to encourage them to make bets. Chips are for making small side bets, but we also run a series of public prediction markets throughout the retreat.</p>
<p>Sometimes hilarity ensues (as when one participant wanted to set up a hedge against the bad bets he was afraid he’d make and asked me to create a market on whether the majority of his bets would have been wrong). But we include bet-making because we think it helps promote good rationality habits (the amusing stories are a positive externality).</p>
<p>In the case linked above, where the parent and the child bet on the snow, a bet keeps you accountable. It’s easy to imagine looking at the snow and saying something like “You know, this snow isn’t very dense. I bet when it would take up a lot less volume if it were melted,” and not ever going back to double check. You end up rewarding yourself for predictions that you don’t verify (your feeling of “Well, I was <em>probably</em> right&#8221; is the same feeling that caused you to make the original bet). When you bet, you know you’ll find out if you were right, so you get to check how well calibrated your confidence is.</p>
<p>And, in order to find out who’s right, you need to come up with a way to <em>test</em> your prediction, which forces you to think a little more concretely about the <em>consequences</em> of your predictions. More than once, two participants at a workshop have started setting up a bet but have had to scuttle the whole thing as it became clear they were anticipating the same result but <a href="http://lesswrong.com/lw/np/disputing_definitions/">framing it differently</a>.</p>
<p>You can use a website like <a href="http://predictionbook.com/">PredictionBook</a> to track bets on your own, but it&#8217;s a lot of fun to recruit friends and make it a game.  Betting <em>against</em> someone will force you to make your assumptions and your predictions explicit and specific.  Plus, you don&#8217;t want to beat yourself up for making a lot of bad bets at first; you&#8217;re in training, so it can be fun to compete to spot opportunities for bet (and thus opportunities to learn) instead of focusing too much on who wins them at first.</p>
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		<title>CFAR is Hiring!</title>
		<link>http://appliedrationality.org/2013/04/09/cfar-is-hiring/</link>
		<comments>http://appliedrationality.org/2013/04/09/cfar-is-hiring/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Apr 2013 17:53:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Leah Libresco</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://appliedrationality.org/?p=1721</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We’re looking for an additional full-time logistics manager to work with us in the Bay Area. Of course, at a rationality education startup, logistics can sometimes look a little weird. Sure, we have the normal concerns (food, snacks, and chairs all prepped for our beta test classes?) but sometimes we have requirements that are a [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We’re looking for an additional full-time logistics manager to work with us in the Bay Area.  Of course, at a rationality education startup, logistics can sometimes look a little weird.  Sure, we have the normal concerns (food, snacks, and chairs all prepped for our beta test classes?) but sometimes we have requirements that are a little stranger. </p>
<p>For example, when we have workshops, we usually need to make sure that we’ve got a location where the proprietors won’t mind that people are up talking much later than our class schedule runs.  Or need to make sure there’s a quiet space for naps, as we always seem to have a few attendees working on a polyphasic sleep schedule.  And I guess most people don’t call a retreat house and ask “How much wall space do you have for giant sticky notes?  There’s going to be <em>a lot</em> of mostly-helpful diagramming going on.”</p>
<p>We’re still a small outfit, so joining the team means working closely with everyone at CFAR, and, of course, <a href = " http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eating_your_own_dog_food">dogfooding</a> (training intensively in our rationality habits to make your job and life go more smoothly).  It’s good to have a logistics person who can spot and snipe the <a href = "http://lesswrong.com/lw/at/sunk_cost_fallacy/">Sunk Cost Fallacy</a> at twenty paces.</p>
<p>If you think you may be interested, look at the job description below, and <a href="https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1ACTvM1oYsw1zzHMumrLzffCVVak3eA5A-5uJzyIYOKM/viewform">consider filling out our application</a>.  We&#8217;re trying to fill this position quickly.</p>
<p>We&#8217;re looking for someone:</p>
<ul>
<li>who is self-motivated (able to work without much supervision)</li>
<li>who can juggle many priorities and keep track of what’s most important</li>
<li>who enjoys logistics, and is fine with such tasks as:
<ul>
<li>making checklists of which objects are needed</li>
<li>getting objects to and from places</li>
<li>researching possible workshop sites; thinking through what is needed, and what participants’ experiences will be</li>
<li>figuring out what we’re overlooking and how to fix it</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>who can handle large volumes of email correspondence in a timely way</li>
<li>who can help coordinate and manage people when necessary (e.g., managing 6 temporary workers during workshops; and perhaps growing into other roles as our organization grows)</li>
<li>who is pleasant, sociable, can work well with a variety of people, and can serve as a good face for our organization.</li>
</ul>
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		<title>Elementary Skills, My Dear Rationalist&#8230;</title>
		<link>http://appliedrationality.org/2013/04/03/elementary-skills-my-dear-rationalist/</link>
		<comments>http://appliedrationality.org/2013/04/03/elementary-skills-my-dear-rationalist/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Apr 2013 19:20:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Leah Libresco</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://appliedrationality.org/?p=1718</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A storm came up from the southwest this morning, and it&#8217;s been raining on and off all day. After a glum trudge across London, you reach the house from which your client&#8217;s brother disappeared and skulk about, looking for an unobtrusive opportunity to enter. Turns out there&#8217;s a window left open on the south side [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>A storm came up from the southwest this morning, and it&#8217;s been raining on and off all day. After a glum trudge across London, you reach the house from which your client&#8217;s brother disappeared and skulk about, looking for an unobtrusive opportunity to enter. Turns out there&#8217;s a window left open on the south side of the house, away from the street. A quick scramble up the trellis, and you&#8217;re in. </p>
<p>You&#8217;re paging through the documents on the desk by the window, when the storm shifts to on-again, and you have to move quickly to shut it before the papers are soaked. You turn back to your reading, but a thought crosses your mind, The storm&#8217;s been going all day. These papers should have been wet already&#8230; <strong>unless that window had only been recently opened</strong>.</p>
<p>You step sharply to one side as a billy club passes quickly through the place where your head was only a moment before and leaves a sizable dent in the desk.  And then the game&#8217;s afoot&#8230;</em></p>
<p><center><a href="http://appliedrationality.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/open-desk-drawer.jpg"><img src="http://appliedrationality.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/open-desk-drawer-300x199.jpg" alt="open desk drawer" width="300" height="199" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-1719" /></a></center></p>
<p>It&#8217;s the ability to notice her confusion that saves our detective and lets her live to sleuth another day. But for most of us, our slip ups as a rationalist are a lot less dramatic. And that can be <em>worse</em>. </p>
<p>At least a mysterious assassin has the manners to concuss you in a clear, noticeable way. A false belief that slips beneath your notice will keep influencing you and leading you astray without you even noticing you&#8217;re under attack. So your confusion-detector needs to be even subtler than that of our brave protagonist. </p>
<p>In <a href = "http://lesswrong.com/lw/if/your_strength_as_a_rationalist/">&#8220;Your Strength as a Rationalist&#8221;</a> Eliezer Yudkowsky writes:</p>
<blockquote><p>Your strength as a rationalist is your ability to be more confused by fiction than by reality.  If you are equally good at explaining any outcome, you have zero knowledge.</p>
<p>We are all weak, from time to time; the sad part is that I could have been stronger.  I had all the information I needed to arrive at the correct answer, I even noticed the problem, and then I ignored it.  My feeling of confusion was a Clue, and I threw my Clue away.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>It&#8217;s easy to desire this skill, but hard to train well-calibrated confusion. We have some tools and techniques we teach <a href="http://appliedrationality.org/workshops/">at our workshops</a> to help you pick up on cues and assemble them into data.  But a good place to start is just noticing whether you&#8217;re using these habits and when.  </p>
<p>Starting tomorrow, we&#8217;re serializing <a href="http://appliedrationality.org/checklist/">our Rationality Checklist</a> and sending it out in monthly installments to <a href="http://appliedrationality.org/newsletter-popup/">our newsletter subscribers</a>.  First up are habits that help you notice when you&#8217;re confused and become sharper at observing the details of what you think and believe.  We&#8217;ll be sharing some stories about how we use these habits, and we&#8217;d love for you to share some of yours in response to the survey.</p>
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		<title>Warm, Fuzzy Rationality?</title>
		<link>http://appliedrationality.org/2013/04/01/warm-fuzzy-rationality/</link>
		<comments>http://appliedrationality.org/2013/04/01/warm-fuzzy-rationality/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Apr 2013 19:34:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Leah Libresco</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Media Analysis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://appliedrationality.org/?p=1708</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This week’s cover story in The New York Times Magazine was a profile of Adam Grant, a Wharton professor who specializes in workplace dynamics. The author of the article was pleased by the way Grant revamped offices to use positive, warm-hearted means of motivation. In one example: [A]t the call center, Grant proposed a simple, [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This week’s cover story in <em>The New York Times Magazine</em> was <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/31/magazine/is-giving-the-secret-to-getting-ahead.html?ref=todayspaper&amp;pagewanted=all&amp;_r=0">a profile of Adam Grant</a>, a <a href="http://www.management.wharton.upenn.edu/grant/">Wharton professor</a> who specializes in workplace dynamics. The author of the article was pleased by the way Grant revamped offices to use positive, warm-hearted means of motivation. In one example:</p>
<blockquote><p>[A]t the call center, Grant proposed a simple, low-cost experiment: given that one of the center’s primary purposes was funding scholarships, Grant brought in a student who had benefited from that fund-raising. The callers took a 10-minute break as the young man told them how much the scholarship had changed his life and how excited he now was to work as a teacher with Teach for America.</p>
<p>The results were surprising even to Grant. A month after the testimonial, the workers were spending 142 percent more time on the phone and bringing in 171 percent more revenue, even though they were using the same script. In a subsequent study, the revenues soared by more than 400 percent. Even simply showing the callers letters from grateful recipients was found to increase their fund-raising draws.</p>
<p>When Grant went back and talked to the callers about their improvement, many actively discounted the possibility that the brief encounter with a scholarship student helped. “Several of them were stunned,” Grant said. “Their response was, ‘Yeah, I knew I was more effective, but that was because I had more practice,’ or, ‘That was because I had a better alumni pool in that period — I got lucky.’ ” Eventually, having replicated the test five times, Grant was confident that he had eliminated other explanations.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The call center people were confused that the personal encounter with the scholarship recipient could make such a difference. After all, they already <em>knew</em> what they did – they didn’t get any new data out of the talk, nor did they make any deliberate changes.</p>
<p>It’s easy to imagine that a perfect rationalist would have learned <em>nothing</em> from the meeting that Grant set up. After all, a good rationalist wouldn’t need an emotional prod to internalize information. This sounds a lot like the trope of the <a href="http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/StrawVulcan">Straw Vulcan</a> who distrusts emotional cues as illogical.</p>
<p>Sometimes, people are surprised to look over <a href="http://appliedrationality.org/schedule/">our sample schedule</a> and see that CFAR offers some ‘soft’ classes about emotional awareness and social dynamics. But we see those domains as just as relevant as decision theory and Bayes theorem. It’s all about understanding the world you live in (which includes you-as-you-are!) and how to act effectively with the tools you’ve got.</p>
<p>Most of us have experience with some finicky piece of equipment (I spent much too long wedging thin books under a power cord that need to be at <em>just</em> the right angle to make contact with my laptop). It would be absurd for me to glare at the cord and refuse to make adjustments because it <em>ought</em> to work without any adjustments. And the quirks that Grant is making use of aren’t idiosyncrasies; they look like they’re factory standard for <em>Homo sapiens</em>.</p>
<p>Our rationality workshops start by understanding the world as it is – how do you make sense of new data (both when you have a lot of time for analysis and when you need to use a quick and dirty approximations)?  And then we can move on to expanding our tool kit (e.g., in our Installing Habits, Overcoming Aversions, and Propagating Urges classes) so we can take action and make change in ourselves and the world around us.</p>
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