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[cross-posted at Less Wrong] One day a coworker said to me, “Luke! You’re, like, the happiest person I know! How come you’re so happy all the time?” It was probably a rhetorical question, but I had a very long answer to give. See, I was unhappy for most of my life,1 and even considered suicide
Co-authored with Gwern Branwen, who did most of the work. Data & code available here. Updates 11/09 3:30pm Pacific: Updated Brier scores, added Simon Jackman, added ’2008 Repeat’ baseline. 11/09 9pm Pacific: Updated scores, added Wang & Ferguson. 11/11 2:30am Pacific: Added appendix, updated scores with final batch of data from Wang & Ferguson. 11/26
In the opening pages of Introduction to Decision Analysis, decision analyst David Skinner tells the harrowing story of “the hardest decision [he] ever made”: In September of 1998, I was working… in Venezuela when I received a phone call from a good friend that my wife… was in the hospital… I quickly called the hospital,
In 2003, Apple co-founder Steve Jobs was diagnosed with cancer. Luckily, it was a type of pancreatic cancer with a very high survival rate. Unfortunately, Jobs resisted his doctors’ recommendations for mainstream medical treatment for nine months. Instead, he turned to experts in “alternative medicine,” including an acupuncturist and a psychic. Jobs finally consented to
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I've been told I take this too far. A friend of mine points out that I am too willing to hear unpleasant information and... »
I thought of a possible problem with the analysis. Nate Silver missed two Senate races that polling suggested would be won by Democrats, but... »
Another trackback: http://election.princeton.edu/2012/11/13/an-open-source-thank-you/ »
We're going to update the state margins in 2 weeks or so (rather than multiple times, right?). »
1. extracted it by hand from the expired contracts' advanced info pages, combined with a wget/xclip/grep script 2. Wang's CSV is listed in the... »